Zürcher Nachrichten - War in Ukraine offers redemption to maligned US intel community

EUR -
AED 3.977584
AFN 72.97331
ALL 98.471483
AMD 418.201653
ANG 1.947741
AOA 987.091608
ARS 1069.655368
AUD 1.646242
AWG 1.949276
AZN 1.840739
BAM 1.957212
BBD 2.182094
BDT 129.143152
BGN 1.954485
BHD 0.40824
BIF 3141.094707
BMD 1.082931
BND 1.432446
BOB 7.467386
BRL 6.240496
BSD 1.080689
BTN 90.843526
BWP 14.506732
BYN 3.536751
BYR 21225.450121
BZD 2.178391
CAD 1.507916
CDF 3151.329687
CHF 0.939378
CLF 0.037622
CLP 1038.09406
CNY 7.713394
CNH 7.709706
COP 4723.756412
CRC 554.797619
CUC 1.082931
CUP 28.697675
CVE 110.344593
CZK 25.387145
DJF 192.450594
DKK 7.461363
DOP 65.08785
DZD 144.589697
EGP 52.781738
ERN 16.243967
ETB 129.142344
FJD 2.469735
FKP 0.828625
GBP 0.834929
GEL 2.956749
GGP 0.828625
GHS 17.561667
GIP 0.828625
GMD 75.267848
GNF 9320.809259
GTQ 8.354026
GYD 226.10309
HKD 8.415793
HNL 27.261916
HRK 7.460345
HTG 142.424047
HUF 408.167823
IDR 16955.398534
ILS 4.018379
IMP 0.828625
INR 91.064166
IQD 1415.734256
IRR 45596.815328
ISK 148.535001
JEP 0.828625
JMD 170.972535
JOD 0.768122
JPY 165.738814
KES 139.697818
KGS 92.912751
KHR 4393.209432
KMF 493.221338
KPW 974.637772
KRW 1493.568127
KWD 0.331994
KYD 0.900658
KZT 529.777025
LAK 23692.089332
LBP 96831.145235
LKR 317.368921
LRD 207.503507
LSL 19.141684
LTL 3.197614
LVL 0.655054
LYD 5.216811
MAD 10.66149
MDL 19.371884
MGA 4995.695706
MKD 61.647512
MMK 3517.318063
MNT 3679.800005
MOP 8.648238
MRU 42.730822
MUR 49.934159
MVR 16.633359
MWK 1873.986334
MXN 21.805874
MYR 4.742197
MZN 69.210057
NAD 19.141684
NGN 1777.707392
NIO 39.769053
NOK 11.869548
NPR 145.351185
NZD 1.809573
OMR 0.416925
PAB 1.08068
PEN 4.067772
PGK 4.328162
PHP 63.051476
PKR 300.167099
PLN 4.342051
PYG 8603.285077
QAR 3.940242
RON 4.975657
RSD 117.071326
RUB 105.070444
RWF 1469.753361
SAR 4.06699
SBD 9.024652
SCR 14.734655
SDG 651.385063
SEK 11.556667
SGD 1.433535
SHP 0.828625
SLE 24.586475
SLL 22708.520838
SOS 617.64266
SRD 37.174834
STD 22414.487933
SVC 9.455908
SYP 2720.897239
SZL 19.146899
THB 36.570267
TJS 11.509502
TMT 3.790259
TND 3.347515
TOP 2.536337
TRY 37.11639
TTD 7.324283
TWD 34.63582
TZS 2945.573002
UAH 44.699568
UGX 3960.857004
USD 1.082931
UYU 44.972439
UZS 13816.96631
VEF 3922974.904603
VES 45.748164
VND 27392.742898
VUV 128.567792
WST 3.033489
XAF 656.427457
XAG 0.032104
XAU 0.000398
XCD 2.926675
XDR 0.812301
XOF 656.436556
XPF 119.331742
YER 271.08476
ZAR 19.111081
ZMK 9747.674879
ZMW 28.774021
ZWL 348.703382
  • CMSC

    -0.1600

    24.57

    -0.65%

  • RYCEF

    0.0400

    7.25

    +0.55%

  • SCS

    -0.3800

    12.21

    -3.11%

  • CMSD

    -0.0400

    24.84

    -0.16%

  • RBGPF

    62.3500

    62.35

    +100%

  • RIO

    0.4000

    66.58

    +0.6%

  • VOD

    -0.2600

    9.28

    -2.8%

  • NGG

    -0.8800

    65.12

    -1.35%

  • AZN

    -0.7900

    75.22

    -1.05%

  • GSK

    0.2900

    38.17

    +0.76%

  • BCC

    -6.9800

    131.64

    -5.3%

  • JRI

    -0.0900

    12.98

    -0.69%

  • RELX

    -0.2500

    47.91

    -0.52%

  • BCE

    -0.2300

    32.46

    -0.71%

  • BTI

    -0.4500

    34.46

    -1.31%

  • BP

    -1.6900

    29.36

    -5.76%

War in Ukraine offers redemption to maligned US intel community
War in Ukraine offers redemption to maligned US intel community

War in Ukraine offers redemption to maligned US intel community

Caught on the back foot by the Taliban's lightning takeover of Kabul last August, US intelligence services have earned a measure of redemption with Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which they predicted and detailed with impressive precision.

Text size:

According to several US officials consulted by AFP, the US military understood as early as October 2021 that Russian troop movements on the border with Ukraine were not normal -- Moscow said they were conducting regular drills, but the formations on the ground did not match up.

The Pentagon voiced its concerns to the White House, and US intelligence services quickly got to work to try to learn more. Some of Joe Biden's aides doubted Russia could be planning a major assault, but the US leader took the situation seriously.

On November 2, Biden sent CIA Director Bill Burns -- a former ambassador to Russia -- to Moscow for talks with President Vladimir Putin.

Burns, who speaks Russian, let Putin know that Washington had "serious" concerns about his troop movements, CNN reported at the time.

Half a dozen colonels from the US Joint Chiefs of Staff intelligence directorate pored over information received from CIA analysts and the National Security Agency's listening services to try to determine the Russian plan of attack.

From the basements of the Pentagon, "these unsung heroes have driven the entire intelligence community," said one of those officials, on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive national security matters.

He added that the NSA had done "unbelievable work."

- Paths of attack -

In January, that assiduous intelligence work allowed the colonels to draw up a map that predicted with astonishing precision how Russia's military would attempt to invade Ukraine -- from the north towards Kyiv, from the east via Kharkiv and from the south through Mariupol.

Wanting above all else to prevent armed conflict, the Biden administration quickly made the decision to publicly reveal an unusual amount of classified information about Russia's preparations for war.

In early February, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said Moscow was set to "produce a very graphic propaganda video, which would include corpses and actors that would be depicting mourners," pretending the scene was the result of a Ukrainian attack -- a pretext for invasion.

Soon after, journalists were invited to meet with senior intelligence officials who hardly ever speak to the press. Those officials said Russia was stepping up its preparations for a major military assault on Kyiv.

Reporters were shown a map with the predicted Russian troop movements. They were even given an expected date of attack: mid-February, after the conclusion of the Beijing Winter Olympics.

The scenario offered that day to the world's media was met with skepticism in Europe.

- The date -

The exact date of the attack was eventually pushed back a few days, but the Biden administration was so sure that its intelligence was correct that on the evening of February 23, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he believed an invasion would begin before the night was over stateside.

On the morning of February 24, Russian forces invaded Ukraine.

The US intelligence community had been right all along, except for a few details.

US analysts did not predict how fiercely Ukrainians would defend their country, nor did they count on the dogged determination of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, whose bravery has galvanized his compatriots.

According to intelligence predictions, many in the US feared Kyiv would fall within 48 hours, and that Zelensky would be quickly ousted in favor of a pro-Russian leader.

As the invasion enters its third week, the Ukrainian capital remains out of Russian hands and Zelensky earned a standing ovation from British lawmakers after he addressed them via video link.

US intelligence also worried the Ukrainian military would be quickly paralyzed by a Russian cyberattack, which did not materialize.

That's because, while Kyiv has modernized its armed forces, its Soviet-era planes have not been upgraded, and use the same communications systems as the Russian army -- meaning Moscow cannot cripple the Ukrainians without hurting their own effort.

US intelligence has estimated that war in Ukraine could have a horrific human toll, with 25,000 to 50,000 civilians killed, as many as 25,000 Ukrainian soldiers slain and up to 10,000 Russian military personnel killed.

Officials raised the possibility of between one and five million refugees, many of whom would be headed towards Poland.

Indeed, as of Wednesday, the Pentagon put the number of Russian fatalities at 2,000-4,000, and the United Nations said more than two million refugees have already left the eastern European country.

P.Gashi--NZN