Zürcher Nachrichten - Is the US election really so close?

EUR -
AED 3.995362
AFN 72.879605
ALL 98.279106
AMD 421.060772
ANG 1.961671
AOA 992.037372
ARS 1079.883898
AUD 1.650502
AWG 1.957968
AZN 1.848211
BAM 1.9506
BBD 2.197642
BDT 130.07325
BGN 1.956076
BHD 0.409923
BIF 3149.065907
BMD 1.08776
BND 1.432221
BOB 7.538113
BRL 6.300416
BSD 1.088399
BTN 91.544784
BWP 14.493762
BYN 3.562202
BYR 21320.10079
BZD 2.194012
CAD 1.511932
CDF 3093.590087
CHF 0.940059
CLF 0.037622
CLP 1038.115053
CNY 7.729194
CNH 7.744086
COP 4802.461479
CRC 558.610853
CUC 1.08776
CUP 28.825646
CVE 110.570286
CZK 25.337523
DJF 193.316613
DKK 7.457728
DOP 65.755289
DZD 144.924474
EGP 53.362292
ERN 16.316404
ETB 131.730194
FJD 2.475688
FKP 0.83232
GBP 0.839365
GEL 2.975022
GGP 0.83232
GHS 17.795417
GIP 0.83232
GMD 77.774428
GNF 9387.370605
GTQ 8.409582
GYD 227.918699
HKD 8.456411
HNL 27.270436
HRK 7.493613
HTG 143.238155
HUF 408.073167
IDR 17156.80723
ILS 4.079737
IMP 0.83232
INR 91.526159
IQD 1424.96592
IRR 45800.145229
ISK 148.903481
JEP 0.83232
JMD 171.981531
JOD 0.771335
JPY 165.659408
KES 140.320912
KGS 93.328602
KHR 4432.622841
KMF 492.21194
KPW 978.983975
KRW 1499.504725
KWD 0.33341
KYD 0.907107
KZT 531.852186
LAK 23865.459643
LBP 97463.318006
LKR 319.109317
LRD 208.686872
LSL 19.04682
LTL 3.211873
LVL 0.657975
LYD 5.232249
MAD 10.711134
MDL 19.42974
MGA 5020.01397
MKD 61.608784
MMK 3533.002843
MNT 3696.209341
MOP 8.71421
MRU 43.510008
MUR 49.852176
MVR 16.748932
MWK 1887.810848
MXN 21.88318
MYR 4.752392
MZN 69.503294
NAD 19.046414
NGN 1788.049647
NIO 40.002392
NOK 11.962274
NPR 146.471575
NZD 1.820166
OMR 0.418813
PAB 1.088528
PEN 4.098953
PGK 4.361369
PHP 63.556199
PKR 302.234637
PLN 4.358541
PYG 8572.148333
QAR 3.960101
RON 4.975525
RSD 117.015772
RUB 107.688744
RWF 1483.704973
SAR 4.085607
SBD 9.035177
SCR 14.763818
SDG 654.283077
SEK 11.668624
SGD 1.434821
SHP 0.83232
SLE 24.719375
SLL 22809.784965
SOS 621.111205
SRD 37.969403
STD 22514.440879
SVC 9.523612
SYP 2733.030539
SZL 19.046919
THB 36.714631
TJS 11.592317
TMT 3.818038
TND 3.370961
TOP 2.547647
TRY 37.371852
TTD 7.378534
TWD 34.793422
TZS 2927.024714
UAH 45.11385
UGX 3983.381087
USD 1.08776
UYU 45.349108
UZS 13939.647593
VEF 3940468.630106
VES 46.559442
VND 27514.895381
VUV 129.141114
WST 3.047017
XAF 654.230992
XAG 0.032247
XAU 0.0004
XCD 2.939726
XDR 0.817643
XOF 653.199741
XPF 119.331742
YER 271.776542
ZAR 19.035368
ZMK 9791.150456
ZMW 29.197969
ZWL 350.258355
  • RBGPF

    66.4100

    66.41

    +100%

  • SCS

    0.1100

    12.25

    +0.9%

  • CMSD

    0.1103

    24.92

    +0.44%

  • CMSC

    0.1100

    24.64

    +0.45%

  • RELX

    -0.0200

    47.06

    -0.04%

  • NGG

    0.1900

    64.45

    +0.29%

  • BTI

    0.0400

    35.11

    +0.11%

  • RIO

    -0.3200

    65.01

    -0.49%

  • RYCEF

    0.0100

    7.11

    +0.14%

  • GSK

    0.0900

    36.97

    +0.24%

  • BP

    0.5000

    29.73

    +1.68%

  • BCC

    0.0500

    134.26

    +0.04%

  • BCE

    -2.9800

    29.12

    -10.23%

  • VOD

    -0.0300

    9.32

    -0.32%

  • AZN

    0.0100

    71.43

    +0.01%

  • JRI

    0.0500

    13.1

    +0.38%

Is the US election really so close?
Is the US election really so close? / Photo: Brendan SMIALOWSKI, CHANDAN KHANNA - AFP/File

Is the US election really so close?

The United States stands on edge as polls suggest one of the closest presidential races in history between former president Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.

Text size:

Major polling outlets show the candidates virtually deadlocked.

In battleground states on election eve, polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight reported a 47.8 percent tie in Pennsylvania, near-identical numbers in Nevada, and mere one-point differences in Wisconsin, Michigan, and North Carolina.

But these razor-thin margins may not tell the whole story.

"I wonder, is it really this close?" asked W. Joseph Campbell, professor at American University in Washington.

His questions stems from pollsters' troubled track record in recent elections and a potential overreaction to past failures.

The political establishment was blindsided in 2016 when Trump won despite trailing in polls, while Joe Biden's 2020 victory margin proved much narrower than predicted.

In 2022, Republicans secured only a slim Congressional majority despite forecasts of a "red wave."

"The 2020 presidential election was collectively the worst for pollsters in forty years and an embarrassment for many," Campbell said.

Trump's emergence on the political scene largely explains these polling mishaps. His supporters were consistently undercounted in 2016 and 2020, prompting polling companies to adjust their methodologies.

- 'Traumatic for pollsters' -

History offers an intriguing parallel: In 1980, polls showed incumbent Jimmy Carter neck-and-neck with Ronald Reagan. Reagan ultimately won by 10 points, benefiting from a late surge while Carter lost support to a third-party candidate.

"I'm not saying that's going to be the model in 2024, but it is something to keep in mind," Campbell added.

Leading polling analysts openly acknowledged these challenges.

"No, you can't trust the polls... You can't safely assume that the candidate leading in the polls is going to win," wrote Nate Cohn, the New York Times chief political analyst and polling director.

Cohn explained that pollsters are working to correct systemic biases that emerged in the Trump era.

"It's hard to overstate how traumatic the 2016 and 2020 elections were for many pollsters. For some, another underestimate of Trump could be a major threat to their business and their livelihood."

However, he warned that while adjusting methods to better capture Trump voters, pollsters might now be underestimating Harris.

"On balance, these changes add up to a case for cautious optimism on better accuracy, but there are no guarantees," Cohn concluded.

Some experts suspect pollsters may be falling victim to groupthink, or "herding", adjusting results that deviate significantly from the consensus.

Professors Joshua Clinton and John Lapinski warned to NBC news: "State polls are showing not just an astonishingly tight race, but also an improbably tight race."

They suggest that "a risk-averse pollster who gets a 5-point margin in a race they think is tied may choose to 'adjust' the results to something closer to what other polls are showing, lest their outlier poll adversely affects their reputation..."

They said this raised a crucial question: "Is 2024 going to be as close as 2020 because our politics are stable, or do the polls in 2024 only look like the results of 2020 because of the decisions that state pollsters are making?"

P.Gashi--NZN