Zürcher Nachrichten - Cyber warfare rife in Ukraine, but impact stays in shadows

EUR -
AED 3.831072
AFN 72.927229
ALL 98.419269
AMD 410.271893
ANG 1.872215
AOA 957.496706
ARS 1061.692588
AUD 1.668305
AWG 1.877444
AZN 1.777282
BAM 1.955189
BBD 2.097545
BDT 124.141237
BGN 1.954562
BHD 0.391978
BIF 3071.340978
BMD 1.043024
BND 1.410859
BOB 7.178758
BRL 6.347889
BSD 1.038876
BTN 88.318423
BWP 14.358517
BYN 3.399738
BYR 20443.276614
BZD 2.088248
CAD 1.495916
CDF 2993.480167
CHF 0.932343
CLF 0.037343
CLP 1030.408256
CNY 7.610327
CNH 7.606363
COP 4547.280118
CRC 524.136339
CUC 1.043024
CUP 27.640144
CVE 110.230581
CZK 25.128859
DJF 184.992236
DKK 7.459297
DOP 63.260247
DZD 140.605096
EGP 53.072428
ERN 15.645365
ETB 129.499464
FJD 2.41674
FKP 0.826056
GBP 0.830004
GEL 2.931306
GGP 0.826056
GHS 15.271232
GIP 0.826056
GMD 75.098122
GNF 8975.197506
GTQ 8.004501
GYD 217.342135
HKD 8.110923
HNL 26.370766
HRK 7.481515
HTG 135.907563
HUF 414.018477
IDR 16867.059138
ILS 3.805965
IMP 0.826056
INR 88.607528
IQD 1360.875069
IRR 43898.289923
ISK 145.105945
JEP 0.826056
JMD 162.539247
JOD 0.739613
JPY 163.153034
KES 134.118122
KGS 90.743481
KHR 4174.696457
KMF 486.179751
KPW 938.721302
KRW 1508.651632
KWD 0.3212
KYD 0.86573
KZT 545.579643
LAK 22737.90012
LBP 93027.952144
LKR 305.004763
LRD 188.551125
LSL 19.125728
LTL 3.07978
LVL 0.630915
LYD 5.104406
MAD 10.455435
MDL 19.135025
MGA 4901.469523
MKD 61.515792
MMK 3387.702296
MNT 3544.196494
MOP 8.316603
MRU 41.315099
MUR 49.23465
MVR 16.066474
MWK 1801.337535
MXN 20.937842
MYR 4.701994
MZN 66.653144
NAD 19.125728
NGN 1616.208293
NIO 38.228063
NOK 11.812512
NPR 141.309876
NZD 1.845228
OMR 0.401355
PAB 1.038876
PEN 3.868392
PGK 4.212685
PHP 61.403232
PKR 289.16061
PLN 4.26442
PYG 8100.470639
QAR 3.787117
RON 4.976899
RSD 116.993992
RUB 107.216522
RWF 1448.147818
SAR 3.91792
SBD 8.744252
SCR 14.545014
SDG 627.382961
SEK 11.51065
SGD 1.414241
SHP 0.826056
SLE 23.784779
SLL 21871.701575
SOS 593.714613
SRD 36.642527
STD 21588.497505
SVC 9.090162
SYP 2620.630141
SZL 19.121029
THB 35.692677
TJS 11.364851
TMT 3.661015
TND 3.310266
TOP 2.442871
TRY 36.683145
TTD 7.050798
TWD 34.034966
TZS 2467.229611
UAH 43.568696
UGX 3810.81008
USD 1.043024
UYU 46.335532
UZS 13393.817798
VES 53.689938
VND 26550.18399
VUV 123.829936
WST 2.881655
XAF 655.752242
XAG 0.03535
XAU 0.000398
XCD 2.818826
XDR 0.792453
XOF 655.752242
XPF 119.331742
YER 261.147252
ZAR 19.11033
ZMK 9388.474223
ZMW 28.750023
ZWL 335.853405
  • RELX

    -0.3100

    45.47

    -0.68%

  • NGG

    0.8200

    58.5

    +1.4%

  • BCC

    -0.2600

    122.75

    -0.21%

  • SCS

    -0.5800

    11.74

    -4.94%

  • RBGPF

    59.9600

    59.96

    +100%

  • GSK

    0.1700

    33.6

    +0.51%

  • BTI

    0.1131

    36.24

    +0.31%

  • RIO

    -0.0900

    58.64

    -0.15%

  • CMSC

    0.0200

    23.86

    +0.08%

  • BP

    0.1900

    28.6

    +0.66%

  • CMSD

    0.0000

    23.56

    0%

  • BCE

    0.0500

    23.16

    +0.22%

  • RYCEF

    -0.0100

    7.27

    -0.14%

  • AZN

    0.9100

    65.35

    +1.39%

  • VOD

    0.0100

    8.39

    +0.12%

  • JRI

    0.1100

    12.06

    +0.91%

Cyber warfare rife in Ukraine, but impact stays in shadows
Cyber warfare rife in Ukraine, but impact stays in shadows / Photo: Andrew CABALLERO-REYNOLDS - AFP/File

Cyber warfare rife in Ukraine, but impact stays in shadows

Hackings, network sabotage and other cyber warfare campaigns are being intensely deployed by both sides as Russia's invasion of Ukraine grinds on, though the covert operations have not proved decisive on the battlefield -- at least so far.

Text size:

Western allies initially feared a tsunami of cyberattacks against Ukraine's military command and critical infrastructure, hindering its ability to resist the Russian forces pouring across its borders.

As of mid-September, the Cyber Peace Institute, an NGO based in Switzerland, counted nearly 450 attacks -- roughly 12 a week -- carried out by 57 different entities on either side since the invasion was launched in February.

Yet with European and US help, Kyiv has largely withstood the high-tech onslaught.

"Large-scale cyberattacks have indeed occurred, but it's generally agreed that they have clearly failed to produce the 'shock and awe' effect some predicted," according to Alexis Rapin, a researcher at the University of Quebec.

Writing for the strategic studies site Le Rubicon, he said the most devastating attacks often take months or even years to plan and execute, "making it very difficult to synchronise them with a conventional military campaign."

Another factor may be the massive help Ukraine has had from its allies, including software and expertise to protect its systems as well as counterattacks that may be hampering Moscow's cyber strategy.

"Russia has been under constant cyber assault over the last few months from an international coalition of volunteer, non-governmental hacking organisations, the most prominent being the 'Anonymous' movement," said Arnault Barichella, a researcher at the Jacques Delors Institute in Paris.

While it remains unclear how effective these "spontaneous" attacks have been, "Russia simply underestimated Ukraine's cyber resilience, in the same way that it underestimated the country's armed forces," he wrote in a recent report.

- Hybrid war -

Nonetheless, the war on Europe's eastern flank offers on-the-ground proof that cyber assaults will be part and parcel of 21st century armed conflicts.

Even before the first Russian tank rolled into Ukraine, hackers in mid-January launched the WhisperGate malware against around 70 Ukrainian government sites, followed by a distributed denial of service (DDoS) campaign that disrupted banks, radio stations and websites.

Moscow was then suspected of being behind the Hermetic Wiper virus that knocked out some 300 IT systems in Ukraine, while hackers targeted the Viasat satellite operator to deactivated thousands of internet modems.

"Most people did not hear about the fact that almost every Russian attack came with a cyberattack before and during operations -- cyber usually does not kill people," said Eviatar Matania of the Israel National Cyber Bureau.

And in most cases, IT networks that come under attack can often be restored in a few days if not hours, limiting their use when hostilities have escalated to open warfare.

More likely, cyber campaigns will be ongoing between rival states, aiming to destabilise and demotivate as opposed to seeking a knockout blow on the battlefield.

"Currently cyber is more important in peacetime than in conventional war -- in cyber we are all the time in conflict," Matania told AFP.

Rapin agrees that cyber warfare is most suited to sabotage, espionage and information wars aimed at sapping morale -- the sort of clandestine warfare waged before any shots are fired.

The tactics appear essential, however, when laying the groundwork for conventional military campaigns in which even just a few hours of having a communications or electricity network offline could offer a decisive advantage for ground and air forces.

"Cyber operations aren't some magical dust that gets sprinkled on at the end of an operation," said Colin Clarke, director of research at the Soufan Center security think-tank.

"They are woven into, or closely integrated, with the full suite of US military capabilities and security cooperation activities," not least pre-battlefield planning, he told AFP.

But the impacts of cyber assaults are often not revealed until months or years after they are deployed.

It took nearly two years before the public learned about the Stuxnet computer virus that allegedly destroyed around 1,000 of Iran's nuclear centrifuges, used to refine uranium for use in atomic weapons -- widely thought to be the result of a US and Israeli campaign.

And if Russian President Vladimir Putin determines that his Ukraine invasion is faltering, the retaliation in the cyber domain could prove more potent than seen up to now.

"You cannot underestimate the danger of a cyber escalation, especially if the Russian military operations on the ground flounder and the Kremlin feels as if its back is against the wall," Barichella said.

O.Hofer--NZN