Zürcher Nachrichten - China nears peak emissions as climate envoy meets US counterpart

EUR -
AED 4.0853
AFN 77.304935
ALL 99.425443
AMD 430.640141
ANG 2.0056
AOA 1030.326739
ARS 1068.290213
AUD 1.649014
AWG 2.002068
AZN 1.894175
BAM 1.956874
BBD 2.246933
BDT 132.982961
BGN 1.955109
BHD 0.419049
BIF 3218.88113
BMD 1.11226
BND 1.441091
BOB 7.717234
BRL 6.126886
BSD 1.11271
BTN 93.21276
BWP 14.749092
BYN 3.64147
BYR 21800.300671
BZD 2.242929
CAD 1.511489
CDF 3192.187171
CHF 0.939754
CLF 0.037189
CLP 1026.173446
CNY 7.889821
CNH 7.894912
COP 4701.557395
CRC 577.164769
CUC 1.11226
CUP 29.474896
CVE 110.725097
CZK 25.154429
DJF 197.670788
DKK 7.461765
DOP 66.891993
DZD 147.145288
EGP 53.86567
ERN 16.683904
ETB 126.732832
FJD 2.46466
FKP 0.847052
GBP 0.842148
GEL 3.003338
GGP 0.847052
GHS 17.483306
GIP 0.847052
GMD 77.857931
GNF 9621.051255
GTQ 8.607723
GYD 232.817735
HKD 8.668745
HNL 27.598894
HRK 7.56227
HTG 146.637268
HUF 394.090518
IDR 17094.661281
ILS 4.165854
IMP 0.847052
INR 93.266636
IQD 1457.826046
IRR 46831.717491
ISK 152.302078
JEP 0.847052
JMD 174.945984
JOD 0.788263
JPY 156.4327
KES 143.481939
KGS 94.173739
KHR 4532.460805
KMF 492.453354
KPW 1001.033584
KRW 1468.249939
KWD 0.339172
KYD 0.927409
KZT 535.105474
LAK 24586.51271
LBP 99658.517708
LKR 336.084392
LRD 216.835034
LSL 19.658686
LTL 3.284215
LVL 0.672795
LYD 5.310914
MAD 10.841048
MDL 19.335608
MGA 5034.309439
MKD 61.539439
MMK 3612.577867
MNT 3779.46024
MOP 8.934882
MRU 44.256281
MUR 51.108874
MVR 17.073163
MWK 1929.658702
MXN 21.471795
MYR 4.784385
MZN 71.045627
NAD 19.658509
NGN 1823.103063
NIO 40.952468
NOK 11.797983
NPR 149.140417
NZD 1.796762
OMR 0.428162
PAB 1.112811
PEN 4.199901
PGK 4.412421
PHP 61.981842
PKR 309.903495
PLN 4.276184
PYG 8651.746755
QAR 4.04918
RON 4.973474
RSD 117.034281
RUB 101.661095
RWF 1490.428719
SAR 4.17439
SBD 9.309084
SCR 14.918942
SDG 669.022464
SEK 11.33961
SGD 1.441344
SHP 0.847052
SLE 25.412146
SLL 23323.535348
SOS 635.954632
SRD 33.090301
STD 23021.541289
SVC 9.737342
SYP 2794.587146
SZL 19.649014
THB 37.00464
TJS 11.840396
TMT 3.904033
TND 3.369592
TOP 2.613588
TRY 37.81024
TTD 7.555466
TWD 35.441098
TZS 3035.862046
UAH 46.17264
UGX 4134.231064
USD 1.11226
UYU 45.715081
UZS 14187.784086
VEF 4029221.145275
VES 40.854166
VND 27300.42755
VUV 132.04977
WST 3.111507
XAF 656.317086
XAG 0.036092
XAU 0.000431
XCD 3.005939
XDR 0.824752
XOF 656.320038
XPF 119.331742
YER 278.391045
ZAR 19.604591
ZMK 10011.678031
ZMW 29.406134
ZWL 358.147343
  • RBGPF

    5.1600

    62.16

    +8.3%

  • RYCEF

    0.0300

    6.59

    +0.46%

  • CMSC

    -0.0800

    25.03

    -0.32%

  • NGG

    0.6500

    70.25

    +0.93%

  • BCC

    -0.7600

    135.1

    -0.56%

  • SCS

    0.2500

    14.04

    +1.78%

  • RIO

    0.6500

    63.2

    +1.03%

  • VOD

    0.1650

    10.335

    +1.6%

  • AZN

    0.7450

    79.015

    +0.94%

  • RELX

    0.3850

    48.095

    +0.8%

  • GSK

    0.5150

    43.525

    +1.18%

  • CMSD

    -0.0400

    25.06

    -0.16%

  • BCE

    -0.1911

    34.475

    -0.55%

  • JRI

    0.0920

    13.282

    +0.69%

  • BTI

    0.2050

    39.375

    +0.52%

  • BP

    0.4250

    32.265

    +1.32%

China nears peak emissions as climate envoy meets US counterpart
China nears peak emissions as climate envoy meets US counterpart / Photo: GREG BAKER - AFP

China nears peak emissions as climate envoy meets US counterpart

As climate envoys from the world's top two greenhouse gas producers meet in Beijing this week, experts say China's emissions may finally be nearing their peak.

Text size:

US climate envoy John Podesta will be looking to solidify Beijing's commitments -- which include topping out its planet-warming emissions by 2030 -- as he meets this week with counterpart Liu Zhenmin.

But with Beijing installing renewable capacity at record speed, and a construction slump dragging down emissions-heavy steel production, there are signs China could hit the peak early, though uncertainties remain.

"So much clean electricity... is being added that China can peak its emissions right now, if those additions are maintained and if overall energy demand growth moderates," said Lauri Myllyvirta of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).

China is building almost twice as much wind and solar energy capacity as every other country combined, data showed earlier this year.

That breakneck installation saw it hit a target for wind and solar capacity in August, six years ahead of schedule.

And while coal remains king in China's electricity system, there are signs the world's second-biggest economy may be weaning itself off the fossil fuel.

Coal power permits fell 83 percent in the first half of this year, and no new coal-based steelmaking projects were approved in the same period.

China is the world's top emitter and biggest consumer of coal, making its progress central to global climate goals, said Myllyvirta.

"Whether China's emissions growth continues or turns into a decline is absolutely decisive for our ability to peak global emissions and start reducing them towards net zero," he told AFP.

- 'Establishing before breaking' -

In addition to solar and wind, China's clean energy mix includes a significant amount of hydro and nuclear power.

China is the world's fastest growing nuclear power producer, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency, and last month alone approved plans for 11 new nuclear reactors.

But despite the growth in non-carbon energy sources, China's demand for coal still jumped last year, helping drive a global increase.

And coal-fired power generation is projected to grow again this year in China, albeit at the lowest rate in almost a decade, according to the International Energy Agency.

"However, there is significant uncertainty concerning the availability of hydropower and the growth in power demand," it warned.

Even as coal permits fell, construction began on more than 41 gigawatts of coal projects during the first half of 2024, CREA and Global Energy Monitor said.

That nearly equalled 2022 levels and accounts for over 90 percent of new coal construction worldwide.

The continued build-out reflects China's "cautious approach to its clean electricity transition," said Muyi Yang, senior electricity policy analyst at energy think tank Ember.

That strategy is "characterised by 'establishing before breaking', first building a robust clean electricity system before phasing down fossil fuels", Yang told AFP.

China has already seen drought hit hydropower output, something that is likely to become more frequent with climate change.

But as it builds out other renewable and non-carbon alternatives, its reliance on coal to plug gaps should decline, said Yang.

"China is fast approaching this critical juncture."

- 'Long way to go' -

There are other headwinds, including grid and market reforms, and "opposition from vested interests", warned Myllyvirta.

That could mean even massive renewable growth is insufficient to cover increasing demand.

And it remains an open question whether a peak in China's emissions would be followed by a progressive decline, or merely a plateau.

Still, the direction of travel and signals from top leadership offer cause for some optimism, analysts say.

A survey of 89 experts last year found the majority expected China to peak carbon emissions before 2030.

However, China has declined to sign a global pledge to reduce methane emissions by at least 30 percent from 2020 levels by 2030.

Podesta is expected to press his counterpart on efforts to reduce the potent greenhouse gas.

The talks may also cover ongoing rows over China's domination of green manufacturing, which has sparked tariffs from Washington and elsewhere.

"Those countries that don't want to be reliant on China for that supply still need to sort out their supply chains," Myllyvirta said.

"They have a long way to go in that respect."

F.Carpenteri--NZN